What To Expect: Long-Term Expert Forecasts For Bitcoin Rate
2018 was a real shock for many crypto enthusiasts. The Bitcoin price not just scaled new heights but also rolled back to the mid-2017 marks. The market capitalization in relation to the January peak values to the beginning of December decreased by eight times.
In such circumstances even fanatical supporters of the Buy&Hold trading strategy and violent opponents of technical analysis are wondering about Bitcoin price future in a month, six months, a year...
Bit.News offers the audience an overview of long-term bitcoin rate forecasts from well-known cryptocurrency analysts.
Independent cryptocurrency researcher and creator of the NVT indicator, Willy Woo, demonstrated the following plausible scenario in one year's horizon:
The first thing Woo pays attention to is a simple moving average in a period of 200 days. The upward price acrossing of this red line and the rapprochement of the latter with the 200 week MA will signal bullish sentiment in the market.
The range between $ 2,200 and $ 2,900 is the “capitulation zone” similar to 2014-2015 bear market periods. This range is optimal for placing buy orders.
The green line for the 200 week MA is the lower boundary of the accumulation zone in the range of about $ 3,600- $ 4,550. This area, according to Woo, the most will be relevant in the 2Q of 2019. At this time, the bear market is expected to come to an end. This, in particular, will be indicated by the transaction volumes for various coins, changes in the HODL structure, the NVT indicator, etc.
If the first cryptocurrency falls below the level of $ 1,300, then media will have headlines about Bitcoin death.
Willy Woo emphasizes that his forecast is only the version with the most key levels and at all not an appeal to action.
Murad Makhmudov is the investor and economist who regularly shares his thoughts on the long-term outlook for bitcoin. Back in mid-November, he published a very conservative forecast, which is unlikely to have lost relevance now.
According to the chart attached to a tweet, Murad makes a clear analogy with the bear market of 2014-2015. Just as a few years ago, the lower bound of the “Triangle” figure was recently pierced.
After that, at the end of November, the level of $ 4334 was passed. The lower mark, to which the price can go down the channel, is $ 2880. After that, the analyst is sure, the price will begin a gradual recovery.
The upper boundary of the channel will be broken around May next year. This moment marks the end of the bearish cycle and the resumption of the long-term uptrend.
According to Murad, there is something like "a preparatory phase" now to the forthcoming bull market which reflects in the gradual growth of transaction volumes in Bitcoin network.
For example, before the renewal of the uptrend in 2015–2016, at the end of 2015, the price gradually decreased amid the growth in the volume of BTC transactions. A similar situation is happening at the moment:
The thesis that the bear phase is already at the final stage is confirmed by CoinDesk analysts:
Estimated #bitcoin transaction value has reached its highest point (629,491 BTC) in 3+ years (Nov. 3, 2015)
— CoinDesk Markets (@CoinDeskMarkets) December 5, 2018
Before the recovery begins, the transaction volumes should increase sufficiently. For this, noted in CoinDesk, it may take months.
Bitcoin still should become a liquid and reliable means of preserving value, a generally accepted means of exchange, a convenient settlement unit, and then world money. This requires more decentralization, custodial decisions and legal certainty. Also important are the development of the network effect, price stabilization, better recognition and mass adoption.
There is a widespread opinion that the bitcoin shows growth with approach of a so-called halving when the award for found bitcoin miners blocks decreases twice. The argument of supporters of this theory is under construction that BTC becomes more scarce asset. In other words, at invariable demand reduction of the offer of an asset leads to growth of its price.
Halving occurs every four years, that is, every 210 thousand blocks. The nearest such event should take place approximately on May 26, 2020. After this date, the miner’s reward will not be 12.5 BTC, as it is now, but 6.25 BTC.
The last halving, which was the second in the history of Bitcoin, took place on July 9, 2016. As you can see on the chart, a few weeks before this event, there was a steady increase in the price:
here was some decline after the halving immediately. It served as a kind of respite before the dizzy growth that began only a few months later. So, Bitcoin shows the lowest rates for 17-12 months before the halving. A year before it begins to rise in price.
Twitter user @ChartsBtc has a similar opinion. He came to the conclusion that before, during and after the halving, the price draws very similar patterns. The analyst compared the charts of different years and predicted that by the third billing, the BTC would reach $ 12,000.
— Bitcoin Charts (no TA) (@ChartsBtc) December 5, 2018
According to CoinDesk analysts, the next key support level is likely to be the $ 2,900-3,000 area.
Also, analysts state that for altcoins, 2018 was even more unhealthy than 2014-2015.
The current #crypto bear market has been harder on altcoins than the infamous 2014-15 bear market.
In 2014/15, the total altcoin market cap fell 85% from its high. The altcoin market cap today is down 90 percent from its 2018 high. pic.twitter.com/0pEbBOnrfC
— CoinDesk Markets (@CoinDeskMarkets) December 6, 2018
Thus, during the 2014-2015 bear market, the altcoin market sank 85% in relation to its maximum. Since the beginning of this year, this market has shrunk more than 10 times - the drawdown relative to the historical maximum exceeded 90%.
The famous trader Peter Brandt is sure that attempts to restore Bitcoin prices from December 2017 are nothing more than a “dead cat bounce.”
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 30, 2018
As you can see the Bitcoin price comes out of the triangle. The goal of the downward movement is the $ 2,900, roughly corresponding to several forecasts highlited above.
In late November, Charlie Bilello, an analyst at New York-based Pension Partners, conducted a survey, the results of which may seem dismal.
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) November 21, 2018
Thus, a third of respondents are confident that within the next 12 months the Bitcoin price will be less than $ 1000. Another third of the respondents expressed the opinion that next year the BTC will “walk” in the range of $ 2500-4200.
Bilello is also known for his regular tweets due to comparison of the most popular cryptocurrencies to their historical highs. According to his data for December 8, the Bitcoin price in relation to the December “high” has decreased by 83%. For other cryptocurrency assets, the deep was 90% or more.
However, perhaps everything is not so bad, since the longest bitcoin did not update the historical maximum of 1176 days (from December 2013 to February 2017).
In the last 3 months of 2017, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high once every 3 days, on average.
Bitcoin has now gone 354 days without a new high.
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) December 5, 2018
Apparently, the price of Bitcoin has not reached the bottom yet. However, many industry participants are confident that cryptocurrency is still ahead.
So, co-founder of the decentralized exchange 0x Will Warren is sure that the market is currently improving and in the long term "there will be an increase in the use of Bitcoin and similar technologies."
The head of Hacera project Jonathan Levi agrees with this position. According to him, Bitcoin is undoubtedly cheaper, but he himself and the underlying technologies are used more and more often.
“Many European banks are actively investing in the blockchain, and this is directly related to Bitcoin,” Levi said.
According to the researcher and partner of Placeholder, Chris Berniske, Bitcoin and Ethereum are underestimated from the point of view of fundamental analysis.
According to his estimate, in relation to their peak values, the bitcoin and ether rates declined by 81% and 93%, respectively (as of December 9). However, such key network indicators, such as the amount of value transmitted through the blockchain and the growth rate of the number of unique addresses, remain at relatively high levels. Moreover, Bitcoin and Ethereum hashraits are currently higher than during periods when the prices of these cryptocurrencies were at their highs.
Also there has been an increase in the number of BTC transactions in recent months. This is happening against the background of the development of Lightning Network and Liquid, which significantly unload the bitcoin blockchain.
Thus, the cryptocurrency market is considerably overheated for all last year was. Hype reached peak at a boundary of 2017-2018 and now the market still looks for a balance point.
Different traders and market researchers have their own approaches to technical analysis, therefore, the forecasts may differ. Because, a thorough and competent fundamental analysis aimed at studying the long-term prospects of individual coins is always important. In particular, it is designed to assess the real value of an asset and determine how its price currently corresponds to the realities of the market.
As for the industry as a whole, there is no doubt that it will have to go a long way, which, as before, will be full of various events.