Bitcoin rally 2017 was remembered for many people. And even nowadays it is still on hearing. And this is not surprising. There are the notorious “forecasts” of bitcoin prices, which experts note, thus setting the mood of the community.
At the same time, everyone should argue own point of view.
For example, recently the CEO of Global Marko Investor, Raoul Pal promises Bitcoin capitalization at $ 10 trillion with $ 1,000,000 per BTC. Pal’s arguments were the crisis caused by the difficult economic situation in the world and the potential of BTC. He states, that Bitcoin is not just money, but also a proven cryptographic accounting system. The future of our entire exchange system.
What way should the economic situation in the world contribute to the growth of bitcoin? If it is cryptography and an accounting system, then why is Bitcoin only. There are many state cryptocurrencies, which are now actively developed. It seems that this is not enough for millions of people, including large investors, suddenly start to invest their money into the first cryptocurrency.
One of the fundamental roles of BTC today is speculation. BTC is primarily a buy-sell asset. How many people will buy dust from Satoshi for thousands and tens of thousands of dollars, especially knowing that for BTC, a collapse of 90% is normal? Spend twenty thousand dollars to turn into two hundred? We doubt that there will be many who wish to make such an exchange. This in itself suggests that there is a certain psychological barrier, upon reaching which the purchase of BTC will cease to seem attractive to people. No matter how actively he grew up to this.
Agree, not everyone can make investments worth tens of thousands of dollars. Therefore, at a price close to $ 100,000 for 1 BTC and higher, the percentage of people willing to invest will decrease significantly.
And the amounts at stake will be such that they will take profits and sell Bitcoin in large quantities. This will provoke a rapid drop in BTC prices, which in itself will be a powerful blow to the spectacularly lying row of dominoes.
To mitigate such a fall, an injection of funds will be required. But who will give capital to contain such Bitcoin collapse?
In other words, a trigger should appear that will begin to attract new money to this market.
Returning to the forecasts, we would like to present another example. ShapeShift CEO, Eric Voorhees, recently predicted an eighty percent chance that BTC would hit $ 50,000 in twelve months. The analyst referred to “Bitcoin’s tendency to take tops” and suggested analyzing those price forecasts that were already justified in the past.
Speaking about the forecasts that came true, it’s not difficult to conclude that it was just luck. After all, there are many analysts and they all compete against each other. Probability theory is an interesting thing, and it does not exclude the possibility that someone “guesses” it all the same. Therefore, looking back at the forecasts that have justified themselves in the past, in this case, is clearly not enough. You will receive a mountain of conflicting, disparate data. Their analysis will not yield anything. No model. No algorithm.
Many people are waiting for $ 20,000. In their opinion, BTC is simply obliged not only to do this but also significantly exceed the price maximum mentioned above.
To date, Bitcoin for one hundred thousand dollars and above is simply unrealistic.
Moreover, such a BTC is inconvenient for speculation (it is not attractive and less accessible for a wide range of users), and now it is this function of it that is the most common and in demand. In order for at least something to change, the entire cryptocurrency industry has a long way to go. In fact, right now, even a hike of $ 20,000 should not be taken for granted.
Let’s consider Bitcoin for $ 20,000. Growth was unexpected, strong. At the same time, it was anomalous. There were many reasons for this:
Of course, these are not all the reasons. But they certainly were part of that powerful movement that drove people crazy, pulled a lot of new money into the market, and as a result – brought Bitcoin to the moon. However, this cannot be regarded as standard indicators.
$ 20,000 is the optimal maximum cost for BTC. For various reasons, not many decide to make large investments at a given price level. In turn, this will lead to the predominance of supply over demand and will provoke the beginning of a global correction. Cryptocurrencies need a developed infrastructure that can offer something not only to their target audience but to the rest of the world.