Bitcoin will fall to $ 10,000 in April. Many give a similar forecast now. The only question is why? In this article, we will take a look at the price of BTC and discuss whether it might happen that the first cryptocurrency is actually at the peak of the current growth cycle.
In general, fixing profit is a necessary and correct thing. There is even such a thing as paper profits. This is when your investment is in the black and it is considered that you have already earned, but in fact, all the profit is only on paper. At any time, the market can turn around and a profitable position will turn into losses. To prevent this from happening, profit should be periodically fixed, and the question is whether this is the time for Bitcoin.
The head of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, was asked what his exit strategy is, is he going to take some of the profits now, or maybe he is going to sell at the end of this year. After all, bitcoin is an asset with high volatility and it is not immune to a price drop even by 80%.
Before moving on to his answer, let’s show this table, which shows the largest Bitcoin owners among public companies:
The first place is taken by MicroStrategy, on the balance of which there are more than 91,000 BTC, which is equivalent to $ 5 billion. And the second place belongs to Tesla Elon Musk. We also recall that MicroStrategy conducted two rounds of attracting investments, issuing promissory notes for the purchase of the first cryptocurrency. So if someone should have a strategy for exiting the market, then it is they, because sooner or later the debts will have to be repaid.
So, what did Michael Sailor say to the offer to sell some Bitcoins?
In his understanding, everyone who is now considering the scenario of Bitcoin’s fall in April is behaving like crypto traders. They make money on the difference and therefore periodically take profit from the table. But Michael Sailor is not a trader and his bitcoin bet is long term. He says he owns the best asset in existence and sees no reason for its price to fall.
He perceives the offer to sell part of the bitcoins as if he were in Argentina, Venezuela or Zimbabwe. That is, in a country where the national currency is cheaper than the paper on which it is printed. And he was suddenly offered to sell part of the dollars, because the Argentine peso has grown a little in price.
Interpreting this answer, we can say that for Michael everything that is not bitcoin is just paper. He holds the best asset that will grow forever, these are his words and therefore does not see the point of selling something.
Why is everyone so waiting for Bitcoin to crash? We are sure there are simply everyday reasons, because I didn’t buy it while it was cheap, but now it’s trivial to shell out $ 55,000.
We don’t think it’s worth reminding that Bitcoin is a divisible value and you can start investing in cryptocurrency even from $ 10. This is not a financial recommendation, this is just how the cryptocurrency market works. This one Tesla share costs $ 618 today, and to buy it, you need exactly that amount. And with cryptocurrencies, everything is much simpler – you buy a part for any convenient amount.
Now let’s move on to more objective reasons, since the end of the previous crypto winter, bitcoin has grown by more than 1,800%:
And if we count from the bottom of the March collapse in March last year, we get an increase of about 1,500%:
This is already really an argument for everyone who believes that Bitcoin is at its new historical price peak and that it is worth waiting for a long-term fall further, as it was in 2018.
Whether this is really so, no one knows, and the only available analytics tool is a comparison of previous Bitcoin growth cycles with the current picture of the market.
So in 2017, if we count from the bottom of that cycle, bitcoin grew by 13,000%:
And if we compare the difference between the historical highs of the prices of the previous cycles, then from 2014 to 2017 the growth was more than 1,500%:
While between the peak of 2017 and the current price the difference is only 200%. And this is an argument for the fact that the potential of the current growth cycle can be many times greater, and the Bitcoin forecasts for $ 200,000 and even $ 400,000 are in fact not a fairy tale and they are justified.
What’s more important to say, if we’re talking about a potential Bitcoin crash in April, then there must be a reason for it. In 2018, as we later learned, the market was deliberately shorted through futures on the CME. Of course, if a similar game is started against Bitcoin, no one will be warned.
But now let’s think together, is there a threat to the cryptocurrency market at the moment, which should lead to a long-term fall? So far, only a trend to ban cryptocurrencies that should come from India comes to mind. But this is India, firstly everything was banned there once, and then they changed their minds. Second, how important is this market in general and what impact can it have?
We have to remind you that Bitcoin trading is prohibited in China, which is the most important region for cryptocurrencies. But despite the ban at the state level, the Chinese are excellent at trading cryptocurrencies, and the state even protects the ownership of bitcoin. Therefore, we do not exclude that the Indian authorities can ram the wall with acceleration and come up with some kind of garbage, but we do not see in this some kind of global trend that threatens cryptocurrencies. And also other financial markets are behaving more than confidently, which gives us protection against a repeat of last year’s collapse in March.
In conclusion, we recall that all that has been said is just our personal opinion, but we really do not see any reason for a strong fall in Bitcoin in the near future. This does not mean that they will not appear, but for now we are calm about our investments in cryptocurrencies.
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