July 15, 2021 / Analytics

Ethereum Price Forecast: Will ETH/USD Drop?

ethereum forecast

Ethereum (ETH) cryptocurrency rate corrected after the recent dump, but the bulls did not break the resistance zone. Therefore, ETH/USD should drop in price to $ 1,700 by July 22.

Key Points

  • ETH price is trading below the 100-hour moving average ($ 2,035).
  • A downtrend line has formed with resistance around $ 2,000 on the hourly chart.
  • The nearest support barrier is at $ 1,850.

Ethereum began to fall on July 7 after peaking at $ 2,409 (Bitstamp data). Over the week, the asset fell by 22% (to $ 1,862). The cryptocurrency rate bounced off the exponential moving averages EMA Ribbon during the correction. This fact speaks in favor of a bearish trend in the medium term.

eth chart

There is head and shoulders pattern on the ETH chart. The bears broke through the neckline, and the price of the coin rushed down on Monday. Considering the head height, the sellers’ target is around $ 1,700. Ethereum rate has rebounded from this barrier twice, but with each test, the probability of overcoming the support zone increases. Thus, sellers have a great chance to break through the barrier on the third try.

eth chart

Is Ethereum Going Down?

Since the end of the previous bull run, ETH has lost 95% in value. Therefore, the downtrend should continue up to $ 200. Drawing an analogy with the 2018 dump, we can assume that the asset rate will push off from the 23.6% Fib ($ 1,200), taking into account the fall in the value of the coin from $ 4,380 to $ 200, and then rise to 50% Fib ($ 2,300).

eth chart

However, Twitter user Zen analyzed the patterns on Bitcoin (BTC) chart and concluded that a reversal was coming in the market. According to historical data, the value of BTC changes cyclically and reaches a record high with an interval of four years. The previous peak was recorded in December 2017, respectively, in December 2021, Bitcoin price will update its maximum. In this case, the Ethereum rate will also increase and will gain a record height about a month later than BTC – in mid-January 2022.

eth chart

At the same time, there are now no objective factors indicating the forthcoming to the moon. No one can guarantee that the price of cryptocurrencies will change in accordance with previous cycles. Therefore, trading with the expectation of an increase in the rate of assets carries too high risks. But Zen’s prediction must be considered as an unlikely alternative scenario.

Technical indicators:

  • 4 hours MACD indicator is in the bullish trend zone.
  • 4 hours RSI is above 40 (in the neutral zone).
  • Major Support Level – $ 1,700.
  • Major Resistance Level – $ 2,050.
  • The nearest pivot points are $ 1,839 and $ 2,062.
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