May 6, 2021 / Analytics

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Market Is Extremely Overbought

ethereum forecast

Correction is planned due to a decrease in the speed of the upward movement in Ethereum (ETH) cryptocurrency market. Therefore, ETH/USD should drop in price to $ 3,000 by May 13.

Key Points

  • ETH is hovering above the 100 hour moving average ($ 3,233).
  • A bullish trend line has formed with support around $ 3,350 on the hourly chart.
  • Buyers fail to gain a foothold above the resistance barrier at $ 3,500, which increases the risk of the asset price falling.

On May 1, a new wave of the bullish trend began. ETH rate rose by 28% and then corrected by 10% for three days. However, on Wednesday, the price of the cryptocurrency began to be pumped again, and on May 6, it reached a record high in history – $ 3562 (Bitstamp data).

During the bull run on May 4, Ethereum found itself in the highest overbought zone in the last year. As a result of the sale of a large volume of coins in the range from $ 3,200 to $ 3,500, the market rolled back towards the oversold side but is still in extreme overbought positions.

Judging by the slowdown in the upward movement and unsuccessful attempts by buyers to consolidate above $ 3,500, ETH/USD will fall over the next two sessions. The nearest strong barrier of support is at $ 3,200, which coincides with the 23.6% Fib recorded during the pump from $ 2,412 to $ 3,562. Since April 12, the value of the coin has increased by 69%, in connection with this, the decline in the coin’s rate is likely to continue to at least $ 3,000 (38.2% Fib).

Is Ethereum Time to Fly South?

In April, the cryptocurrency market capitalization level for the first time exceeded $ 2 trillion and now stands at $ 2.32 trillion. Moreover, digital assets set a new record for the number of green monthly candles in a row – seven. Since October 1, the aggregate value of virtual currencies has risen 549% thanks to bull run.

Ethereum went in plus seven months in a row and from October 1 to April 30 rose by 689%. In addition, the ETH rate against Bitcoin (BTC) has grown by 102% since the beginning of April. Considering all of these metrics, it looks like it’s time for ETH to hit the ground. It is too early to talk about a full-fledged reversal in the market, but a healthy correction would go to the benefit of the coin.

In May, the January situation may be repeated, when Ethereum soared by 86% in 10 days and then collapsed by 33%. In winter, during a bullish trend, there were corrections up to 38.2% Fib several times, but during the current rally the rate decreased to a maximum of 23.6%, which is why the market objectively overheated. Now buying coins carries an increased risk, so it makes sense to wait for the peak and catch ETH on the fall in the area of ​​61.8% Fib.

Technical indicators:

  • 4 hours MACD is in the bearish trend zone.
  • 4 hours RSI is above 60 (in the neutral zone).
  • Major Support Level – $ 3,200.
  • Major Resistance Level – $ 3,500.
  • The nearest pivot points are $ 3,167 and $ 4,106.
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