June 30, 2021 / Forecasts

Continuation Of Bitcoin Bullish Trend: BTC Forecast On Elliott Waves

bitcoin up grow bull

Despite the sad price of Bitcoin, the news is extremely bullish. So, in El Salvador, BTC will become legal tender on September 7, and the authorities bought $ 120 million worth of cryptocurrencies in order to conduct a large-scale airdrop among the population.

Jack Dorsey is also launching a new initiative to promote Bitcoin, and the “whales” are buying up BTC at deeps. The fact that the fall below $ 30,000 could be a bottom is also said by trader Alessio Rastani. He analyzed the price of BTC using Elliott waves.

News

Most importantly, Bitcoin will officially become El Salvador’s legal tender on 7 September. This is important not only because of the status but also because the authorities of the country, in order to introduce Bitcoin payments, decided to conduct a massive BTC distribution for $ 30 in cryptocurrency to each adult.

Anyone who installs a special app, which the authorities still intend to develop, will be able to take part in the airdrop. Given what is known about life in El Salvador, we do not think that any of the locals will decide to refuse. By the way, they were also promised to install 1,500 cryptocurrency ATMs in the country, which will also help in the development of infrastructure.

But for us, this news is the main other moments. The adult population of El Salvador is from 4 to 6 million. To give everyone $ 30 in Bitcoin, an amount of at least $ 120 million is needed. This is not so much when you look at the trading volumes on crypto exchanges. But on the other hand, this is a buyer who will consistently buy out drawdowns in order to accumulate the required amount of cryptocurrency, and yes, this is the first time the state will buy bitcoin.

By the way, Paraguay has joined the countries that, after El Salvador, can accept Bitcoin as a means of payment. A corresponding draft law has already been prepared there, let’s see what the local parliament decides. But the prospect is very cool if two or more countries appear, which Bitcoin has officially recognized. Then they will be able to conduct mutual settlements in cryptocurrency and have deeply in mind the IMF and the World Bank with their statements that working with bitcoin is risky, and therefore they will not help implement such payments.

And two more certainly good news – this is information that one of the “whales” bought another 4,106 BTC during the current sell-off and now has as many as 115,120 coins, more than from the well-known company Microstrategy.

We are not supporters of “whales”, but if someone knows something about the price in the future, then they are the ones who buy – this is clearly a good sign.

And the head of Square and Twitter, Jack Dorsey, launched a new initiative to popularize bitcoin, and investment funds ARK Invest and Paradigm joined him. Elon Musk has already wanted to join this movement.

Forecast

Let’s move on to Bitcoin forecast from Alessio Rastani based on Elliott waves. In his analysis, the trader shows that Bitcoin has tested the lows again, as it did in May. An important point is that the minimum was updated on the growing MACD indicator.

Next, let’s look at what this means for bitcoin, according to Alessio Rastani. But first, let’s briefly explain what Elliott waves are. The market cycle always has 8 waves, first we grow the first five waves, which are denoted by numbers from 1 to 5. Then there is a correction, which consists of three waves and they are denoted by A, B and C.

If we consider each wave separately, then within it there are smaller waves or sub-waves. At the same time, when there is a correction according to the model A, B and C, the first two waves A and B have three waves inside, but the last wave C consists of five sub-waves at once. At the same time, if it is known for sure that wave C is over, then you should wait for the onset of a new cycle, that is, there are five large waves ahead, during which the price will rise.

Now let’s move on to the graph. Earlier, Alessio believed that the fall in May was the completion of the correction and the last point of wave C. That is, the correction began after bitcoin reached a maximum above $ 64,000, then there was the first wave of fall A, then a slight increase during wave B, but in fact this is only part of general fall. And then, during the panic sell-off on May 19, we encountered wave C, after which the decline was supposed to end. But in fact, it was not clear whether this was the completion of wave C or one of its sub-waves.

After the bitcoin price recovered somewhat, Alessio supplemented his analysis and came to the conclusion that wave C may still be in force and on May 19 we were dealing with the completion of the third intermediate wave. Thus, Bitcoin’s rise above $ 40,000 was the fourth intermediate wave, and then the price could fall again to complete the entire correction cycle. Actually, we saw this on June 22.

Today, if Alessio correctly identified the waves, a fall below $ 29,000 could be the completion of wave C. That is, it was its fifth wave, the cycle is over and the market can then return to growth. In other words, we start up the fireworks and rejoice that the bottom has been passed.

But not all is well, Alessio points out that the declining low and divergence on the MACD are good signs to complete the decline. But he needs additional confirmation, it can be a reversal structure on the chart or a strong uptrend, but he has not yet observed anything like this. It’s just that three green candles are not a trend yet, so in his personal opinion, the price of bitcoin could already hit the bottom.

But this is only a possibility, and the likelihood that the bottom will have to be rewritten remains, since it is impossible to say for sure about the completion of the last correctional wave C.

Here is what we learned from the forecast of Alessio Rastani, we agree with him in the sense that the passage of the bottom and a return to growth can not yet be guaranteed, and we want to draw your attention to how sharply the short positions in Bitcoin began to rise.

Короткие позиции по биткоину 

We understand the mood of the bears, after Bitcoin failed to rise above $ 35,000 for the second time, a picture of the re-assault of $ 30,000 was formed in their heads, and now the price may fall even lower. But like the last time these shorts have grown a lot recently, we expect that mysterious “whales” or someone else will not let them earn and, on the contrary, shave all their positions. The last time the bears were lucky, the second time they might finally be punished.

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