Bitcoin (BTC) cryptocurrency rate has overcome the key support barrier of $ 30,000 and consolidated below this mark. Therefore, BTC/USD should drop in price to $ 27,000 by July 27.
Sellers eventually managed to break through the $ 30,000 barrier on July 20, and the Bitcoin price dropped to $ 29,448 (Bitstamp data). As expected, the contracting triangle was broken downward. Given the width of the pattern, the bears’ target is located at $ 20,719 (37% of the breakout point).
In the course of the two previous dumps, the BTC rate fell by 10-16% from the lower border of the EMA Ribbon indicator on the four-hour chart. Thus, BTC is likely to fall in price to $ 27,750- $ 25,900. When trading, you should focus on the average, which is in the region of $ 27,000. From this mark, a rebound to $ 30,000 is possible. Therefore, it makes sense to buy BTC for $ 27,000 and sell coins for $ 30,000 for an 11% profit.
After the completion of the previous bull run in 2017, BTC lost 85% in value. If this situation repeats, the value of the coin will drop to $ 10,000. Fibonacci correction, taking into account the dump to $ 10,000, indicates that the price of the asset will fall to $ 23,000 (23.6% of the level). Then the rate will adjust to $ 37,000 and collapse to $ 10,000. The cost of mining 1 BTC is from $ 7,000 to $ 11,000, so the cryptocurrency may well fall in price to this range.
On July 16, Byzantine General published a graph of the dynamics of changes in the number of users of the Binance and Bybit exchanges who took short and long positions in BTC. Traders started shorting Bitcoin on both exchanges. This fact indicates the upcoming cascade fall in the value of BTC. Apparently, the bottom will be in the region of $ 23,000. However, it may take more than one week to reach this mark, because the market remains small in trading volume.
Over the past month, Fear and Greed Index has remained at a very low level, indicating overwhelming terror. Traders are afraid to buy Bitcoin, so the probability of a reversal in the market is extremely low. The price of the coin has already dropped 55% in relation to the maximum indicator ($ 64,895) and is threatening to hit a new bottom within the next few months.