Bitcoin (BTC) cryptocurrency market is experiencing a flat and a significant drop in trading volume. Therefore, the amplitude of fluctuations in BTC rate will be low, and the asset will rise in price to a maximum of $ 34,800 by July 20.
Bitcoin exchange rate fluctuates within the contracting triangle. On July 13, the price of the coin dropped to the lower border of the pattern and began to correct. If sellers do not break through the support, then BTC price will rise to the upper limit in the region of $ 34,800 within the next week. After that, a downward movement should begin to $ 33,500.
The triangle lines will cross on July 21. Therefore, the volatility of the cryptocurrency rate will continue to decline until next Wednesday. The pattern is bearish; therefore, it should be broken downward. Given the width of the pattern, Bitcoin will be dumped to $ 27,500. If buyers seize the initiative, the trend will change to a bullish one, and the price of the coin will increase to $ 40,700.
It’s no secret that BTC trading is based on deceiving traders. Whales set traps to give the impression of an impending dump or pump. The shrinking triangle is in favor of a downtrend, and market makers can turn the market in the opposite direction, playing on the bearish status of the pattern.
The dynamics of changes in Bitcoin exchange rate is cyclical in nature. Therefore, to predict the situation in the future, you need to use historical data. On the chart of the Historical Volatility indicator, you can see that the peak during the previous bull run was around 136, and during to the moon in 2021, the index value reached only 105. This fact suggests that the BTC value dump, which occurred in April does not indicate the end of the global bullish trend.
The volatility of the Bitcoin exchange rate rebounded from the same resistance zone as in 2017. By analogy, we can assume that the coin will continue to fall in price if volatility decreases, as it did in 2018. If the Historical Volatility value creeps up and overcomes 90, then the BTC price will soar to a new record value. However, the data on the chart now unambiguously confirm the continued downtrend, and it is too early to bet on a reversal.