There is a negative trend in the Bitcoin (BTC) cryptocurrency market. Several factors point to the continued bearish trend in the medium term, so the coin should drop to $ 30,000 by June 15th.
Bitcoin price bounced off the EMA Ribbon exponential moving average indicator on the 4-hour chart and began to fall on June 7. BTC/USD fell by almost 12%, while the contracting triangle, which began to form on May 19, was broken down. This fact testifies in favor of the downward trend. Taking into account the width of the pattern, we can assume that the BTC price will fall to $ 20,800.
The nearest support barrier is at $ 31,000, which coincides with 38.2% Fib, taking into account the decline in the Bitcoin exchange rate from $ 64,895 to $ 10,000. The asset price has already repelled this obstacle on May 23, but if sellers break the barrier on the second try, then BTC will fall in price at least to the previous bottom – $ 30,000. 23.6% Fib (when calculating the dump up to $ 10,000) is in the region of $ 23,000. In this regard, the downtrend may continue up to this mark.
Data from previous cycles suggests that the latest bull run was the weakest, as the value of BTC did not reach the predicted heights. In particular, according to the Stock-to-Flow Model, the Bitcoin rate was supposed to rise to at least $ 105,000. This factor alone increases the pressure on the asset and forms a bearish mood among traders.
In the entire history of BTC trading, the value of the coin has never dropped below the indicator that was registered at the time of the candlestick opening in the year following the completion of Tuzemun. At the beginning of 2018, the price of Bitcoin was about $ 14,000. If the coin falls in price to this level, then the fall in the rate from the historical maximum ($ 64,895 on the Bitstamp exchange) will reach 78%.
In 2013, the price of BTC decreased by 78% and began to rise rapidly after six months. Over the month (from October 30 to November 30), the coin has risen in price by 490%. Then there was a bearish trend that lasted for about a year and a half. If we draw an analogy, then we can make a forecast for the fall in the value of BTC to $ 14,000 by the end of September and the subsequent rise of the cryptocurrency rate to at least $ 85,000 in October. After that, there will be a downtrend that will last until the next halving in 2024.
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