April 6, 2021 / Analytics

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Why Has Bull Run Stalled In Bitcoin Market?

bitcoin forecast

BTC trading volume has decreased in Bitcoin (BTC) cryptocurrency market. The amplitude of the rate fluctuations does not exceed 6%. However, if the bulls gain a foothold above the resistance zone around $ 60,000, then BTC/USD will rise in price to $ 66,000 by April 13.

Key Points

  • BTC price hovers above the 100-hour average ($ 56,760) and the nearest support barrier around $ 57,500.
  • On the hourly chart, a bearish trend line has formed with resistance at $ 59,300.
  • The upward movement will continue as long as the value of the asset exceeds $ 57,000.

The pump ended on April 2. Bitcoin price reached $ 60,120 (Bitstamp data) and then dropped sharply to $ 56,460 (down 6%). However, the cryptocurrency began to actively buy, and its price rose to $ 59,494 by Tuesday. Nevertheless, the bulls did not develop their success, and the coin rate went down again.

BTC price changes within the upward channel. Therefore, there are two most likely scenarios for the development of events. The price of the asset may immediately go up to the upper channel line, which is now at $ 66,200. Or, the asset rate will drop to the lower border around $ 54,700 and after reaching the bottom, it will rush up. Against the background of falling trade volume, the second option seems more realistic.

btc chart

Why Has Bull Run Stalled In Bitcoin Market?

BTC’s flight to the moon paused 61.8% ($ 61,800) from the high expected by many hodlers – $ 100,000. The golden ratio of 1.618 back to 0.618 is a number that is used in technical analysis as one of the Fibonacci levels. In this regard, it seems that the cryptocurrency market has fallen victim to the law of mathematics. Traders began to take profit at the 61.8% mark, and the value of the coin dropped significantly. Given the Fibonacci theory, the rally will continue only after consolidating above $ 61,800.

btc chart

The RSI, designed to measure the strength of a trend, indicates that the current uptrend is weaker than the 2017 bullish trend, which saw the asset rise to $ 20,000 for the first time in history. Therefore, a bearish divergence appeared – a situation in which the price of BTC and the RSI index for 90 days move in opposite directions. This fact indicates the emergence of a downward movement. In this regard, the correction of the Bitcoin exchange rate will benefit the market, as it will increase the level of demand for coins.

btc chart

In addition, BTC has never closed five green quarterly candles in a row. According to the results of the first trimester of 2021, Bitcoin came out in plus for the fourth time in a row. Thus, if the second quarter ends in the green range, it will signal the end of the bullish trend. Otherwise, the upward trend may continue until the end of 2021.

Technical indicators:

  • 4 hours MACD is in the bearish trend zone.
  • 4 hours RSI is above 50 (in the neutral zone).
  • Major Support Level – $ 57,000.
  • Major Resistance Level – $ 60,000.
  • The nearest pivot points are $ 57,663 and $ 59,801.
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