May 4, 2021 / Analytics

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is Bitcoin Bull Run Over?

btc forecast

Bitcoin (BTC) cryptocurrency rate is correcting after the pump. However, the bulls should take control of the market. In this case, BTC/USD will rise in price to $ 61,000 by May 11.

Key Points

  • BTC is trading below the 100-hour moving average ($ 56,989), but above the support barrier around $ 55,900.
  • A bearish trend line has formed with resistance at $ 56,600 on the hourly chart.
  • The asset value could drop to $ 54,000 during the correction.

Bitcoin rate began to be pumped on April 26 after the coin fell to $ 47,025 (Bitstamp data). As a result of two impulses, BTC/USD rose by 24% and reached $ 58,539 on May 1. On Monday, an upward movement occurred, but the trend quickly fizzled out at around $ 59,000, and the value of the digital asset dropped to $ 54,631.

The bulls broke through 61.8% Fib recorded during the dump from $ 64,926 to $ 47,025 twice, but failed to gain a foothold above this zone. Now the BTC rate has dropped below the 50% Fib. Therefore, during the next session, the coin is likely to fall in price to $ 54,000 (38.2% Fib).

btc chart

Market Cipher indicator gave a signal to sell Bitcoin on the 4-hour chart due to the large volume of coins sold from May 3rd to 4th. It is likely that sellers will activate after hitting a bottom around $ 54,000 and start pumping the coin rate to at least $ 61,000. At this mark, there is a 78.6% Fib.

Is Bitcoin Bull Run Over?

The correlation of the dynamics of changes in the exchange rate of BTC and Ethereum (ETH) raises concerns for the future of Bitcoin. The current situation largely coincides with the events that took place at the turn of 2017 and 2018. Bitcoin price rose to a maximum value on December 19, 2017, then fell by 32%, corrected by 15% (19% below the peak), and then collapsed. Ethereum, on the other hand, flew to the moon at this time. ETH gained 60% amid falling BTC value, then followed the example of its older brother and crashed down.

Bitcoin is down 28% this year from its all-time high and has corrected 26% (9% below its peak). The value of ETH has grown by 60% over this period and continues to rise without any significant dumps. Thus, in percentage terms, everything is repeated except for the BTC correction value – 26% instead of 15%.

btc chart

If we draw an analogy in timing, then we can assume that on May 5, a strong downtrend will appear on the Bitcoin market, and within a month the price of the asset will decrease to at least $ 39,000. Of course, this time a sharp drop in the BTC rate may not happen. However, a high probability of a reversal in the market will remain if the price of the cryptocurrency does not renew its historical record by the end of May.

Technical indicators:

  • 4 hours MACD is in the bearish trend zone.
  • 4 hours RSI is above 40 (in the neutral zone).
  • Major Support Level – $ 54,000.
  • Major Resistance Level – $ 61,000.
  • The nearest pivot points are $ 54,664 and $ 58,380.
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