The perfect calm set in the Bitcoin (BTC) cryptocurrency market. Over the past four days, the asset rate has fluctuated in the range from $ 9,100 to $ 9,200. However, BTC chart is bearish, so the BTC/USD should drop to $ 8,600 by July 28.
On Monday, the BTC rate crossed the $ 9,200 barrier twice, but the bulls failed above this mark. Therefore, the virtual currency fell to $ 9,133, then the rate corrected above the support zone of $ 9,150. Bitcoin is currently trading at the 23.6% Fib recorded during the dump from $ 9,238 to $ 9,133.
The key resistance barrier is located at $ 9,200 (61.8% Fib). However, the nearest resistance zone is at $ 9,185. Thus, buyers need to overcome both hurdles to move beyond the bearish trend. The nearest support zone formed at $ 9,155. If, as a result of the downward movement, sellers overcome this barrier, then the asset rate will roll back to $ 9,000. If the negative trend continues, BTC will drop in price to about $ 8,600 by July 28.
The BTC rate is changing within the slow downtrend that occurred on July 9. The chart data suggests that BTC/USD will rise in price to a maximum of $ 9,210 and then drop sharply to $ 8,900.
The level of realized volatility of the BTC rate over the past 10 days dropped to 16% (on average, less than 1% per day). The same low figure was recorded in October 2018. At that time, BTC/USD lost over 50% in value in two weeks. If a similar situation repeats this year, then the value of the cryptocurrency will decrease to at least $ 4,500 within 14 days after the start of the dump.
However, the trader Alpha Zeta analyzed historical data and came to the conclusion that most often the Bitcoin rate rises after periods of stagnation lasting at least 30 days. Points on the chart above the blue line represent a pump after a low level of volatility, while points below this line represent dump events.