August 31, 2021 / Analytics

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Is Under The Threat Of A Sharp Drop

bitcoin analysis forecast

Bitcoin (BTC) cryptocurrency rate is falling against the backdrop of a decrease in trade volume and a decrease in demand for the coin. Therefore, BTC/USD should drop in price to $ 43,000 by September 7th.

Key Points

  • BTC price dropped below the 100-hour moving average ($ 48,320).
  • A downtrend line is forming with resistance around $ 49,000 on the hourly chart.
  • The nearest support barrier is located at $ 43,000.

Bitcoin value reached its maximum in the last three months – $ 50,649 (Bitstamp data) on August 23. However, BTC rate corrected by 8%, and the bullish trend fizzled out. The level of volatility in Bitcoin price has decreased due to the small volume of trading, and control over the market is shifting into the “clutches” of bears.

Three factors support the downward trend. First, the dynamics of Bitcoin exchange rate has gone beyond the bullish trend line that arose on July 21. Second, the coin’s value dropped below the 220-hour exponential moving average of the EMA Ribbon indicator. Third, BTC/USD fluctuates below the 50% Fib recorded during the dump from $ 64,895 to $ 29,300.

btc chart

BTC value is changing in a bearish pattern – a contracting triangle. Taking into account the width of the pattern, we can assume that after breaking it, the asset rate will decline to $ 43,000. At this mark, there is a support barrier coinciding with the 38.2% Fib, therefore, the value of the coin is unlikely to fall below $ 43,000 within the next week.

Bitcoin Price Is Under Threat Of A Sharp Drop

The chart data suggests that wave B of the bearish trend ended on August 24. Accordingly, the increase in the value of BTC since the end of July should be viewed as a correction, not a reversal in the market. Thus, in September, Bitcoin should refresh the bottom during wave C. The next low is likely to be around $ 20,000.

btc chart

Macroanalysis, on the other hand, indicates a continuation of the bull run. Trader Nunya Bizniz believes that the Bitcoin market is now in the fifth wave of bullish trends that started in 2013 and 2019. The coincidence of small and large waves fits into the supercycle theory in the BTC market, so its supporters predict an increase in the value of the asset to at least $ 100,000 within the current upward trend.

btc chart

Technical indicators:

  • 4 hours MACD is in the bearish trend zone.
  • 4 hours RSI iis above 40 (in the neutral zone).
  • Major Support Level – $ 43,000.
  • Major Resistance Level – $ 50,000.
  • The nearest pivot points are $ 46,953 and $ 48,560.
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