July 6, 2021 / Analytics

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Has Not Bottomed Out Yet

bitcoin forecast
Bitcoin (BTC) cryptocurrency market is flat again so BTC/USD will not change dramatically in the near future. The asset may rise in price to a maximum of $ 37,500 by July 13.

Key Points

  • BTC price fluctuates above the 100 hour moving average ($ 34,264).
  • A bearish trend line has formed with resistance around $ 35,500 on the hourly chart.
  • The nearest strong support zone is located at $ 31,000.

Bitcoin trading volume fell to its lowest level since July 2020. Because of this, the amplitude of fluctuations in BTC value has been falling over the past seven days. The flat ended on July 21 last year, the contracting triangle was broken upwards, and BTC rose in price by 31% in 12 days.

btc график

Drawing an analogy, we can assume that until July 21, the BTC rate will change in the corridor between $ 31,000 and $ 37,500 (38.2% and 50% Fib, taking into account the dump up to $ 10,000). As a result of the breakdown of the upper line of the figure, the asset rate will exceed $ 44,000 (61.8% Fib) and reach $ 45,300. Given this fact, it makes sense to buy coins for $ 31,000 and sell them at the top, because after the pump there will be a sharp decline in the value of the cryptocurrency…

btc chart

Bitcoin Price Hasn’t Bottomed Out Yet

The RSI reading indicates that a false bottom was reached at $ 28,606 (Bitstamp data) on June 22. According to historical data, the downtrend ends after the RSI drops to at least 15. As a result of the last dump, the index fell to only 22, and then a correction began.

After dropping to a false bottom, Bitcoin rate goes up and falls sharply from the top. The peak can be identified by the RSI. The transition of the index value to the green zone (from 70) indicates the top. Most likely, RSI will exceed 70 when the Bitcoin rate rises to $ 45,300. Thus, a downward movement towards $ 23,000 should begin from this level. In this case, we will see a classic correction with waves A, B, and C.

btc chart

In 2018, the price of BTC decreased by 85% compared to the maximum value. If this situation repeats itself, then the deepest bottom will be in the $ 10,000 area. The bearish trend will last for about a year, therefore, the Bitcoin value will drop to $ 10,000 by mid-April 2022.

Technical indicators:

  • 4 hours MACD is in the bearish trend zone.
  • 4 hours RSI is above 50 (in the neutral zone).
  • Major Support Level – $ 31,000.
  • Major Resistance Level – $ 37,500.
  • The nearest pivot points are $ 33,372 and $ 34,871.
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