Bitcoin finds itself at the biggest crossroads in 2020. In this article, we divide Bitcoin’s forecast into positive and negative scenarios. Each of them has approximately the same probability at the moment.
Which of these scenarios for Bitcoin will act, will decide its fate until the end of 2020.
Bitcoin plunged down on September 2 following the US stock market. At the moment, we dropped below $ 10,000 several times. However, thanks to those who bought back and returned Bitcoin to an average of $ 10,200.
A very important point is the fact that the S&P 500 index was in a correction on September 2-8 and only on Wednesday 9th it returned to the green zone again.
At the same time, Bitcoin completed its fall on September 3 and ignored a further decline in the stock market. This indicates the existence of its own permanent base of investors who believe in the asset and are not going to repeat the movements of participants in other markets.
In general, this thing can be developed into a new theory, according to which Bitcoin is now passing a strength test, which, by the way, failed in March. And if stock prices return to decline again, and we at least stay at the current $ 10,000, then this will be the best confirmation of Bitcoin’s acquisition of the status of a defensive asset.
But for now, these are dreams and we only see the retention of an important psychological level, which helps to keep the 21-week moving average:
The chart clearly shows that as long as the price of Bitcoin is above this line, the market remains bullish.
And let’s not forget about the stock market. There is a fairly fast recovery, and it can also become an additional incentive for Bitcoin’s growth.
Also, you can draw such a triangle on the 4-hour chart, which, by the way, has already begun to partially break up:
If it works out as expected, we can see strong momentum with a return to the previous support at $ 11,200.
By the way, if we break this triangle not now, then there is a chance to return to $ 10,000 and arrange a sharp hike to $ 9,700 and back to $ 10,000 to finally close this gap on the CME-futures chart and then move only upward with a calm soul.
And a little more positive: big capital continues to believe in cryptocurrency. According to the latest data, investment fund Grayscale already owns over 431,000 BTC and continues to increase the pace of purchases. It is assumed that this is all done through over-the-counter platforms or, in general, under direct contracts with miners.
Also, analyst Willy Woo notes that whales are still in business and accumulate bitcoins in their wallets:
Rumors of a bear market are vastly exaggerated.
Whales = a combined 1000BTC in their cluster of wallets.
Note whales in the 2019 cycle are smarter money (~$5m+ exposure) than whales 2014 cycle (~$500k exposure). pic.twitter.com/DOJWbdnpY8
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) September 9, 2020
It is worth remembering the Stock-to-Flow model because, despite all the unexpected moves from the market, the price is still moving along the intended line:
Let’s start with a tweet from trader Peter Brandt, who gave the not-so-funny Bitcoin prediction:
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) September 8, 2020
His goals are $ 9,700 for BTC and only $ 249 for Ethereum. How can this happen since the current Ethereum price is over $ 370?
This is possible if the 2019 scenario is repeated. Then we got to almost $ 14,000, after which the market began to reverse and as Bitcoin fell, the altcoins simply evaporated.
So, for Ethereum at some point, they gave only $ 120. And if we imagine that the peak in 2019 was the price of $ 14,000, and the peak in 2020 was the rate of $ 12,400, then we may well be in a bear market until December. There is no confirmation of this on the chart yet, but in 2019, our magic 21-week moving average indicated a return of the bear market only after falling below $ 9,700:
And if now we do not hold practically the same price as a year ago, then the next target is immediately $ 8,700 on the 50-week moving average.
Why so much pessimism? First, Bitcoin never went mainstream. Go to Google Trends and make sure that even though we have not collapsed on the request “buy Bitcoin”, we are still very far from peak popularity.
And let’s add here one more unpleasant moment – this is the lack of financial assistance to the US population in the amount in which it was immediately after the official announcement of the pandemic. After all, as soon as everyone was given $ 1,200 from the state, the head of Coinbase immediately announced a large number of deposits for this particular amount.
Historically, September itself is a bad month for Bitcoin. Even in 2017, during Tuzemun in September, Bitcoin closed in negative territory. So this is also the time for harsh statements. While Trump is scaring everyone with China, but nothing will prevent him from finding a new enemy in the person of bitcoin and blurt out something about the ban. Then, most likely, no real action will follow, but his one tweet will be enough for cryptocurrencies to fall very decently.
There is a theory that there is no need to wait for the native, but it is better to make money on the volatility of bitcoin and feel good. If this is your choice and you understand all the risks of trading, then we gave you information on the market. And how to use it, you will have to decide on your own.
And there is a second way – to be a hodler, and then it doesn’t matter to you that we will now fall below $ 10,000 because you have either already accumulated a sufficient amount of bitcoins or will sell them for no less than $ 100,000 per coin, or maybe never at all. Therefore, buying at $ 10,000, $ 14,000, or even $ 20,000, you will still win.